Temple
might seem an obscure team to profile for a college football preview. After
all, they have never won a National Championship in football; they are not a
traditional powerhouse (by any stretch of the imagination), and they play in
the American Athletic Conference- a so-called “Group of Five” conference (which
means they are excluded from the “Power Five”). In the college football picks betting
sphere, however, there just might be something intriguing about the Temple Owls
and their upcoming 2015-2016 season: In this world of up-tempo, no-huddle,
“NASCAR” offenses, the Temple Owls have been slowing things down and playing
serious defense. They might be fairly accused of playing a boring game (unless
you love low-scoring defensive struggles), but they are both scoring less themselves,
and preventing opponents from scoring. That combination suggests betting Under
the Total might be an attractive betting proposition. In this article we will
explore what has happened to Temple and scoring, and we will look to some
possibilities for their sports-betting future.
Because fast-paced offenses in
college football have been trending in recent years, it is no surprise that
more points are being scored, per-game, than ever before. For the first time in
history, these past two seasons have witnessed a per-game average of more than
57 points scored. In fact, the actual points scored per-game in recent seasons
has risen at a rate greater than the rate at which bookmakers have raised
Totals betting lines. The proof is in the ratio of Overs to Unders. It has long
been the case that there are more Unders than Overs in college football
betting. For the 10 seasons leading up to the last two, on average, there were
3.75% more Unders than Overs. For the past two seasons, that percentage dropped
to just 1.65.
The information on rising
scoring is all exposition to the anomaly that is the Temple Owls since Matt
Rhule took over the team as their head coach for the past two seasons
(2013-2014). At a time when all college football games average more than 57
points per game, in 2014, games involving Temple scored an average of just
40.58 points. In 2014, Temple ran just 772 offensive plays, which meant that
119 (of the 128) FBS teams ran more. Their defense played more often- 876
plays- and that was closer to college football’s median average (895 plays).
What made the defense exceptional, however, was how many yards per play they
allowed- 4.75. That figure was good enough to be ranked 11th-best in
the nation. The Under was 7-4-1 (63.64%) in 2014. In Rhule’s first season as
head coach, the Under was 7-5 (58.33%).
If Rhule’s Owls continue to
produce very few offensive plays while his defense continues their excellence
on the field, either bookmakers will put the Total on Temple games so low that
they might average three standard deviations below college football’s mean
Total, or else Temple will continue to go Under the Total in 2015. Adding more
momentum to that charge is the fact that Temple appears to be returning more
defensive starts for 2015 than any other school in the country. Time will tell, but keep an
eye on Temple’s Totals; if they hover anywhere near college football’s average,
2015 could be another opportunity to make money betting Temple to go Under the
Total with profitable consistency.
